GETTING THE FACTS ON TRACK:
The Reality of Eminent Domain
We have been hearing about the potential of Eminent Domain, home and business seizure near the tracks, for High Speed Rail. Residents in some communities have begun to receive a letter that is the first step in evaluating potential property seizure. A copy of this letter, seeking permission to enter the property, was obtained from a San Clara County resident is below.
California HSR Ridership Projections Discredited
As reported in the San Jose Mercury News on July 2nd, the high-speed rail rider estimates the state used to sell voters a $10 billion bond and a massive overhaul of the Caltrain line are flawed and cannot be trusted, a leading group of transportation experts said Thursday.
A UC Berkeley Institute of Transportation Studies report says the data used by bullet-train planners is so "unreliable" that it is impossible to predict whether the project will be successful or lead to "severe revenue shortfalls."
This crucial information undermines the financial validity of the project. Read all about it!
Berkeley Transportation Institute Ridership Study Analysis
San Jose Mercury News, July 2
Transportation experts: Don't trust high-speed rail rider estimates
Dan Walters, Sacramento Bee, July 2
Projections of bullet-train ridership take a hit - Sacramento Politics - California Politics
NBC Los Angeles, July 7
High-Speed Rail Is On a Fast Track to Nowhere
Legislative Analyst’s Office details flaws of CHSRA revised Business Plan
The Legislative Analyst's Office (LAO) presented their review of the California High Speed Rail Authority revised Business Plan to The Senate Transportation subcommittee and The Assembly Transportation Committee. The LAO pinpointed many inadequacies and flaws with this 3rd version of the plan. More than 20 Peninsula community members traveled to Sacramento to testify at both of these hearings. Below is the link to LAO report and here are some of the highlights:
- Inadequate and Incomplete Discussion of Risk
- No risk management strategy
- Risk of not realizing the forecasted ridership, revenues or costs
- Inadequate discussion of types of risks
- Uninformative Timeline
- Timelines very General with Inconsistent order of events
- Funding Plan Appears to Violate the Law
- Operating subsidy necessary for private funding
- Federal Funding Expectations Highly Uncertain
Here are the links to the LAO Report and the CHSRA Business Plan:
LAO Report on HSR Business Plan
CA HSR Business Plan
The November 2008 Prop 1a Ballot
In the wake of June 2008's high water mark for gas prices, November's Proposition 1a passed state wide 52/48%. If you relied solely on information provided at the ballot, you might have missed a lot. Here is the complete ballot summary.
Another Route or Lawsuit?
Burlingame Mayor Cathy Baylock spoke in favor of the Altamont alternative for high-speed rail tracks to avoid disruption to the city. The route would continue up the Peninsula along Hwy 101 or route through the East Bay. The California Rail Foundation, formed in 1987, hired French rail experts Setec Ferroviaire who concluded Altamont is feasible because it avoids inducing sprawl in Santa Clara and Merced counties; addresses traffic congestion in the East Bay; and avoids the Grasslands Ecological Area, the state’s largest fresh water wetlands complex.
Read the Report
SETEC Report on Altamont HSR Route
State Auditor’s Report
The recently released State Auditor’s report on The California High Speed Rail project, is titled - High-Speed Rail Authority:It Risks Delays or an Incomplete SystemBecause of Inadequate Planning, Weak Oversight and Lax Contract Management
California State Auditor report on HSR
California State Auditor one-page factsheet on HSR
Read all about it in the San Francisco Chronicle, link below, as well as the San Mateo County Times, Los Angeles Times, Modesto Bee and most other California newspapers.
Auditor faults state's high-speed rail agency
CALIFORNIA HIGH SPEED RAIL What California Taxpayers Need to Know
1. The Rail Authority Changed the Game
Before the election, California High Speed Rail Authority (CHSRA) Board Member Rod Diridon displayed a picture of a train running at grade level through a park-like area and told Atherton residents that "this is what it could look like," and "all options are open," including tunneling. At a Palo Alto City Council Meeting on October 6, 2008, he repeated that all options were open.
After the election, at a San Carlos scoping meeting on January 22, 2009, CHRSA Board Member Quentin Kopp said that the high speed rail system would run on a raised berm from San Jose to San Francisco and that the CHSRA would use the cheapest alternative.
2. Crucial Details are Missing from the Business Plan
The state Legislative Analyst's Office (LAO) says the CHSRA's business plan is inadequate: "(T)he information provided (in the November 7, 2008 business plan) is very general and does not provide specifics that are included in typical business plans. In fact, the plan claims to be only ‘an outline of the most recent economic and financial studies. . .' (LAO 2009-2010 Budget Analysis Series)
The business plan leaves out essential information:
- A description of the anticipated system
- Forecast of patronage, operation, and capital costs
- An estimate of necessary federal, state, and local funds
- A proposed construction timeline for each segment
- A discussion of risks and mitigation strategies
3. There are many unanswered questions:
- What are expected service levels, by segment?
- What is the assumed train capacity?
- How are ridership estimates projected?
- What is the operating break-even point?
- How will costs be distributed by segment of route?
- How would funds be secured?
- What level of confidence is there for receiving each type of funding?
- What is the proposed schedule, by segment, for completing design/environmental clearance for beginning/completing construction?
- How would risks impact the project and what are the mitigation strategies?
"Lacking detailed information such as this, the Legislature really has no better sense than prior to the plan's submission as to how the authority plans to accomplish its objective."
- The LAO recommended that additional accountability measures be adopted and that the legislature withhold payment for contract work for 2009-2010. "(T)he authority's budget requests provide almost no justification for the specific amounts requested for each contract. Specifically, no information was provided on the work to be accomplished over the budget year."
4. History of Shoddy Work
The Rail Authority selected the same general contractor who did the notoriously over-cost, trouble ridden “Boston Big Dig.”
Parsons Brinckerhoff’s $14.79 billion Big Dig, which had an initial price tag of $2.6 billion, was plagued by problems and cost overruns throughout the two decades it took to design and build.
- State and federal agencies have spent millions of dollars on more than 15 separate Big Dig investigations for shoddy design, construction, engineering, fraud and corruption.
- Rod Diridon is responsible for San Jose’s VTA System which is considered, “…the worst performing light rail in the country. Forecasting inaccuracies cost mega bucks.” (California Voters’ Guide 2008) A recent article in the San Jose Mercury News goes on to say. “…the Valley Transportation Authority is taking a top-to-bottom critical look at how the 22-year-old system works. The sobering answer: not very well.”
- Quentin Kopp is responsible for the Millbrae Bart to Airport Station which was so unsuccessful that service was shut down. Hundreds of millions of dollars was wasted on unused tracks and the large concrete parking structure adjacent to the station is now underutilized.
5. Costs to Build on the Peninsula Have Been Grossly Underestimated
- Condemnation of property is unavoidable to build the HSR and these costs have been grossly underestimated.
- The CHSRA Environmental Impact Report (EIR) underestimates the price per acre for eminent domain takings, stating it to be an average of $193,960 per acre.
- During the Atherton Civic Interest League meeting on May 28, 2009, the CHSRA Representative quoted local land value at $60,000 per acre, apparently underestimating real estate values even more.
- In addition to eminent domain costs, there will be damages to remainder properties and businesses impacted by increased noise and visual blight.
- The EIR estimates overall mitigation costs to be about $7.5 million for everything (traffic, air quality, noise, energy, electromagnetic, land use, aesthetics, visual, utilities, construction impacts, etc.) through Atherton and Menlo Park, including parts of Redwood City and Palo Alto.
6. The Plan Duplicates Existing Caltrain Service
- The Peninsula already has Caltrain.
- High Speed Rail would only serve the Peninsula with two stops: Millbrae and either Palo Alto or Redwood City.
- According to the CHSRA Business Plan, we’ll only save five minutes from Redwood City or Palo Alto to San Jose compared to the existing Baby Bullet.
- Most passengers on the Peninsula desiring to reach southern California by express HSR will have to transfer at San Jose anyway.
- Caltrain has declared a fiscal emergency. Duplicate service would further harm Caltrain by reducing its ridership and revenues.
7. The Bay Area Peninsula Stands to Lose Significant Quality of Life
- Envision tracks at least 75 to 80 feet wide, on top of a 15 to 20 foot wall, and 20 more feet of wires stretched overhead, with over 200 trains each day at speeds approaching 100 miles per hour.
The Program Level Environmental Impact Report states that the high speed rail system will require the following:
- Elevated tracks on a 15 foot high wall that is 75 to 80 feet wide to accommodate four or more tracks.
- Catenary wires 20 to 25 feet above the train
- Sound walls at least as high as the wall holding the tracks
- Roughly 40 foot high poles to support the catenary wires
Imagine removing all the trees that define our beautiful communities.
- On the Caltrain corridor, 1727 trees would have to be removed for electrification alone, and the HSR would have considerably more impact on trees in the Peninsula urban area than the Caltrain electrification project. Many mature and heritage trees would be destroyed.
- Add the noise. Steel wheel rail technology is very noisy; especially with trains moving at 120 mph.
Elevating trains will project the noise further.
Then consider years and years of construction, dust, dirt and noise.
- Temporary shoo-fly tracks required during construction would require easements over properties bordering the right-of-way. Construction will involve years of noise, dirt and dust. Millions of cubic yards of earth will need to be moved, raising dust, noise and other construction issues.
- Where a station is located, a wider right-of-way will be needed to accommodate six tracks for one mile in either direction.
Material provided by the Legislative Analyst’s Report 2009-10; CHSRA Ridership and Revenue Forecasts; CHSRA Environmental Impact Report; CHSRA Business Plan; The San Jose Office of Economic Development; The Town of Atherton Comment Letter to the CHSRA dated 3/09; California Rail Foundation; Architecture 21; Silicon Valley Association of Realtors; Urban Transit Fact Book (Wendell Cox Consultancy); CBS News 1/23/08; Massachusetts Attorney General Press Release 1/23/08; California Voters’ Guide 2008; SJ Mercury News 9/28/09; Letter to the CHSRA from United States Department of the Interior dated 3/18/09; and transcripts from local scoping meetings, city council meetings, and the Atherton Civic Interest League meeting.
